Weather risk planner
Weather risk for filming in Tokyo
Three exterior days in Tokyo in June: rain hits at least one with 90 % probability. In January it is 41 %. The tool is set to Tokyo — enter your own days.
- At least one day hit
- 90 %
- Expected lost days
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- Cover days to hold
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- Risk per day
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- Rain days in month
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- Sunshine per day
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- Daylight
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- Mean temperature
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Your shoot, played out 20 times
Same number of days in every month — click a month
- risk of at least one lost day
- sunshine hours per day
| Lost days | Probability | This many or fewer |
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Rain risk in Tokyo, month by month
Tokyo averages 16 rain days in June and 5 in January. A rain day here is any day with at least 1 mm of precipitation, averaged over 2015–2024. The risk columns assume every exterior day can be lost; the cover-day column is what you need to be 90 % sure a five-day exterior block finishes.
| Month | Rain days | 3 days: ≥ 1 hit | 5 days: ≥ 1 hit | Cover days (5 d, 90 %) | Sun/day | Mean temp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5 | 41 % | 58 % | 2 | 7.8 h | 4.1 °C |
| February | 8 | 63 % | 81 % | 3 | 8.0 h | 5.4 °C |
| March | 11 | 73 % | 89 % | 3 | 8.1 h | 9.4 °C |
| April | 12 | 78 % | 92 % | 3 | 8.6 h | 14.1 °C |
| May | 12 | 77 % | 91 % | 3 | 8.9 h | 18.8 °C |
| June | 16 | 90 % | 98 % | 4 | 8.1 h | 22.0 °C |
| July | 16 | 89 % | 97 % | 4 | 8.7 h | 26.1 °C |
| August | 14 | 84 % | 95 % | 4 | 9.9 h | 27.3 °C |
| September | 15 | 88 % | 97 % | 4 | 7.4 h | 23.6 °C |
| October | 13 | 80 % | 93 % | 4 | 7.0 h | 17.5 °C |
| November | 10 | 70 % | 87 % | 3 | 7.2 h | 12.1 °C |
| December | 7 | 54 % | 72 % | 2 | 7.5 h | 6.5 °C |
When to shoot exteriors in Tokyo
Weighing daylight against rain days, May comes out best: 14 h 02 min of daylight, 12 rain days and 8.9 hours of sunshine a day. The sunniest month is August (9.9 h a day).
The month matters here: five exterior days run a 58 % risk of losing at least one day in January, but 98 % in June — 2 against 4 cover days for 90 % certainty.
Rain days are not grey days: even in June, the wettest month, the sun shines 8.1 hours a day on average. Many of those rain days are wet for an hour, not all day — if your scenes can wait out a shower, lower the share slider in the tool.
Frequently asked
What is the rainiest month in Tokyo?
June, with 16 days of at least 1 mm rain on average (2015–2024). The driest is January with 5.
How many cover days should I plan for an exterior shoot in Tokyo?
For five exterior days and 90 % certainty: 2 in January, 4 in June. The tool above calculates it for your exact number of days.
Is this a weather forecast?
No — it is climate: what the last ten years looked like on average. From about ten days before the shoot, the national weather service forecast is the better source.